Bayes’s Theorem

The following extract is taken from Nate Silver’s book “The Signal and the Noise”.

Thomas Bayes’s paper, “‘An Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances’, was not published until after his death, when it was brought to the Royal Society’s attention in 1763 by a friend of his named Richard Price. It concerned how we formulate probabilistic beliefs about the world when we encounter new data.

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