Nassim Nicholas Taleb writing in The Black Swan:
“We like stories, we like to summarise, and we like to simplify, i.e., to reduce the dimension of matters. The first of the problems of human nature that we examine in the section … is what I call the narrative fallacy. The fallacy is a so stated with our vulnerability to overinterpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths. It severely distorts our mental representation of the world; it is particularly acute when it comes to the rare event.”
“The narrative fallacy addresses our very limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship, upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where is this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.”
The world is complex. Even simple scenarios are difficult to predict. Few experts understand it. And yet we string cherry picked facts together to form nice, neat stories. Stories with beginnings, middles and ends. Causes and effects. We construct cohesion out of complexity. We aim for simple and achieve simplistic.
We shouldn’t stop. But we should understand the limits of our understanding.